An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. And that's embodied by an extreme result: The NFC East is the only division that recorded a simulation with a five-win champion. Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. 14. WebAbout Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers The Browns also have a good defense that improved with the additions of John Johnson III at safety, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at linebacker, Jadeveon Clowney at edge rusher, and Greg Newsome II at cornerback. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. That's right, a team with Jerry Rice had a running back gain more receiving yards. Indianapolis Colts +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October.. Just how goofy was this game? Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an Kansas City Chiefs +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total), Its really hard to get to the Super Bowl. One playoff win and taking the Kansas City Chiefs to the brink last season opened opportunities for the Browns, who possess one of the most talented rosters in the conference. At best, the Falcons are a playoff team, but theyd need something calamitous to happen to the Bucs to have a shot to win the division., 21. Not every team epitomizes greatness and dominance when it is victorious in the Super Bowl. Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. Watch more top videos, highlights, and B/R original content, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Kam Chancellor should have been MVP. The Colts have the third worst odds at +15000, while the Texans have the worst overall odds at +30000. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. Seattle came in with the leagues best defense. Pittsburgh Steelers +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Their win total is 8.5, yet Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500 as coach of the Steelers. One team (Patriots) in the last 25 years has been to three straight.. The team had a 142 record and the best offense in the league averaging about 34 points per game, Joe Theismann and Jon Riggins were stars. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. This was actually the closest one they played. And Chicago finds itself with eight games against FPI's top 10 teams: at Rams, at Browns, at Bucs, vs. 49ers, vs. Ravens, at Seahawks and then a home-and-home with the Packers. In a season without a normal offseason due to the pandemic, the 142 defending champs looked like easy Super Bowl favorites. Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). The Bears defensive dominance made a 36-point laugher worth watching. But even with all that, its not even the best Super Bowl of the last two years. Sixth-round draft pickTom Brady took over for the injured Drew Bledsoe at quarterback and led the Patriots all the way to the Super Bowl title. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. San Francisco finished the regular season at just 10-6, and the leading receiver was none other than Roger Craig. In one of our 20,000 sims, the Eagles took the crown at 5-11-1. Seriously, the Vikings are never allowed to make another Super Bowl. Instead, Baltimore is here due to how poorly it played in its Super Bowl win. After power was restored, the 49ers turned what looked to be another big game blowout into a nail-biter that Baltimore won thanks to a goal line stand and some questionable San Francisco play-calling. Trent Dilfer. Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. Those numbers should improve under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as the Panthers will find out if Darnold can become a franchise quarterback. Burrow should be ready by Week 1, and has an impressive cast of receivers that will make the Bengals passing game even more lethal in 2021. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year Tennessee already has the game's best running back in Derrick Henry and one of the league's best big-play receivers in A.J. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. Despite the strength of the division, the 49ers play one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league (SOS rank: 29th). With a 131 record, this Oakland Raiders team would be higher, but not as good as some of the other late '60s losing teams. The 1991 Redskins might be the greatest team in NFL history, which bumps this game up a few spots. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! A smart strategy? 29 and 30. WebTechnically the truth. Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland's offense -- which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills -- but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. A year before perfection. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. Top draft picks Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. should help, but did Buffalo do enough to shore up the biggest hole on its roster? One could argue the Steelers have the worst QB in the division in 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger, who had 10 interceptions in the teams final seven games. Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. Theyve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason., When narratives build for example, that Lamar Jackson cant win in the playoffs you can find an edge fading them., 1. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. More NFL coverage . This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. Why? edit: grammar New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. The game was expected to be a blowout Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points and it was. 12:11 pm ET, NFL combine 2023 tracker: Top performances, highlights, Jones assures Cowboys still interested in Beckham, NFL Combine 2023: Colossal Richardson breaks QB records, NFL combine measurements: Full list of WR, TE numbers, Jackson Mahomes accused of assault at Kansas restaurant, Agent's Take: Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Teams that never won SB that have best chance in 2021, Mock Draft: Panthers, Colts trade up for QBs, Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Richardson breaks QB record in vertical jump, Pascal robbed at gunpoint, assaulted; WR 'doing fine', Bryce Young measures similar to former No. Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. The problem is that for the first time in years, the Patriots have a brutal schedule. Bart Starr won MVP with only 13 completions. Which one is the most likely to remove itself from this dubious list? Arizona was on its way to the playoffs before Kyler Murray's shoulder injury limited him late in the season, hurting a potential All-Pro campaign. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) So why are they lower value-wise? You won't believe how good some of these teams were. This was the year that Joe Montana and Steve Young alternated starts at quarterback until eventually Montana firmly took the reins down the stretch. Which is a shame, because this 11-4-1 team had a defense that was really impressive throughout the year. Peyton Mannings struggles reinforced the notion that he could be great in the regular season but collapsed in the playoffs. 13. We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one. A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. 11 in the league, per FPI) isn't a problem with that kind of strength on the other side of the ball. Oh, and they had Terrell Owens, who was a superstar. Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. and quarterback rating (112.4). They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. Will this be the first time for everything?. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. Cleveland Browns +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total), Are the Browns a better team than the Cowboys? Miami Dolphins +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), Miami led the NFL in two categories that they are unlikely to duplicate: takeaways (29) and 3rd down defense (31%); they were also seventh in red zone defense. One of the bigger mismatches in Super Bowl history, this one gets bonus points for being the first one and the Chiefs actually keeping things interesting for 30 minutes after going into the half trailing by only four points. When you have to play the two toughest divisions in the NFL NFC West, AFC North the uphill climb is real. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. In a 122 season, this team only surrendered more than 20 points once during the regular season. With Aaron Rodgers' future in limbo, the Vikings could be primed to win the NFC North. The 49ers' projection is based on the assumption that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting quarterback. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. Is the offensive line good enough to protect Burrow from getting hurt again? But the rest of the roster is important, too. Tennessee's offense is going to have to do most of the work in order to repeat at AFC South champions. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. Winning close games and narrowly escaping the agony of defeat is one way to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and while that path may not be the most exciting or exhilarating, it has been traveled on multiple occasions. And the Chiefs would hold at least a 3.5-point edge over every team outside of the Bucs, Bills and Ravens. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. This may not be the worst championship team of all time, but these That's ridiculous. The game that gave us all of those 28-3 jokes. Sure, but it did not make for an entertaining game up until the end. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards. The game may have been bad, but this is NFL history. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. This Baltimore Colts was coached by Don Shula and averaged 28.7 points per game in the '60s. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. Yes, they have the best QB, a fleet of skill players and a fantastic coach, but history is not on their side. Washington, despite being the reigning champ and making an improvement at quarterback in the form of Ryan Fitzpatrick, is second (29%), followed by the Giants (15%) and Eagles (11%). Is this a bad thing?No, but it does not exactly make for one of the most dominant championship teams of all time. The team that benefited from Norwood's egregious error, the New York Giants, was not particularly exceptional. Brown (+1800) Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles (+2200) DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+3000) Haason Reddick, LB, Eagles (+3000) Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs (+4000) Article. If Baker Mayfield improves from last season's campaign, the Browns will contend for a Super Bowl in 2021. Ryan Tannehill has been a top five quarterback over the last two seasons and it hasn't been talked about enough. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy.. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. There's talent on the Falcons, but they are such an unknown heading into 2021. Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. All Rights Reserved. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. The Bills are good enough to get to the Super Bowl this year -- and win it. The Bucs finished the season, including playoffs, with the sixth-most efficient defense under coordinator Todd Bowles. Matt Ryan was an MVP and led the best offense, but the defense surrendered 25.4 points per game. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. Green, but for a young team with a young coach, locker room leadership was needed last year down the stretch when they lost five of seven and missed the playoffs.. 22. This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. He saved the team from the clutches of defeat and led a game-winning fourth-quarter drive. ", From the huge offseason losses on the offensive line, to questions about the secondary, to the difficult division there isnt an ounce of value in the Raiders to win a ring., 26. The game was so bad that the MVP award did not even go to a member of the winning team. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. Out of 35 qualified quarterbacks last season, Darnold finished 33rd in completion percentage, 30th in interception percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 35th in passer rating. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). It was all downhill for Chicago after Devin Hester returned the opening kick for a touchdown. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. With quarterback Dak Prescott back and the possibility of an offensive line returned to full strength, the Cowboys are the division favorites with a 45% shot to win it. This Super Bowl gave us a bunch of memorable performances. While Kansas City's 19% chance to win the Super Bowl might be more than any other team's, FPI is also saying that there's a 4-in-5 chance that a team other than the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Now, by most accounts, the Steelers were great in 1974. that each ranks in the top 10. Peyton Manning was on another level this season, leading his offense to score a jarring 37.9 points per game, but the team around him was lacking. FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn but hes only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure? The defense wasn't that much better either, finishing 27th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and recorded the fewest turnovers in the league. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. Granted, having Simms on the field would have undoubtedly bolstered the Giants offensive attack in the postseason, but this is not a countdown of "what ifs" and "should have beens.". Well, they play in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. A better offensive line will help Cousins out immensely, especially with playmakers like Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielenand Irv Smith. Chicago Bears +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total). 5 offense. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to Here's everything we know, QB Young 5-10 1/8, 204 pounds at NFL combine, Sources: Patriots tell QB Hoyer he's being cut, Horns' Robinson: Versatility worthy of early pick, Jones: Not fixated on Cowboys' drought, just '23, Sources: Raiders plan franchise tag for Jacobs, WR Addison to Steelers' Pickett: 'Come get me', Wolverines' Turner wows with 4.26 40 at combine, Top QB prospect Levis eager to unleash 'cannon', Everything you need to know about Geno Smith's contract negotiations. Bettis got his ring before retirement andthe Steelersgreatly overachieved in the process. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. Buffalo is on the doorstep of reaching the league championship game, thanks to the emergence of Josh Allen as one of the game's best quarterbacks. Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. Ranked below are the 20 worst NFL players to win a Super Bowl since 2000. The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. 20 David Tyree: 2008 Giants Known for his improbable catch in the Super Bowl and how it essentially won the Giants the game, it also hasn't been lost that Tyree was just a mediocre player at best, at any point during his career. 29. We hold major institutions accountable and expose wrongdoing. As far as the division title is concerned, Baltimore is a narrow favorite over the Browns: 43% to 40%. Theres a reason teams from the NFC North are so low here, and its the schedule. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? 3 overall pick Trey Lance entering the season. XFL Week 3 preview: Can AJ McCarron, Battlehawks continue their fourth-quarter heroics? It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? If they had finished better than 124, this team would have been a top 5 Super Bowl runner-up. Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. Kansas City's middling defense (No. And no one has it rougher than the Bears in 2021. If Murray can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for this team. Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). Again, this is all dependent on how Darnold plays. Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings, Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: 1-32 ranking, Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on how much better (or worse) they got this offseason, NFL Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 32 teams for the next three seasons, Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information.